Sri Kartika Afanty
3A-D4
461 10 007
Analysis of corporate
bankruptcy prediction using the z-score models |
ANALYSIS OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION
Made
to provide an understanding of how to analyze corporate
bankruptcy prediction.
This
analysis
is used
to
find out if
there is
the possibility of
bankruptcy
or
no,
if
there is how likely.
To
analyze bankruptcy there are 2 models,
1. Univariate models
1. Univariate models
To examine the relationship between the financial ratios required by the bankruptcy of a company (partial).
2. Multivariat models
A model that combines
several financial ratios together (simultaneously) to predict the bankruptcy of a company. Multivariate ,subdivided into 2 models:
a. Model
Z-Score (Altman)b. Model Logit (James A. Ohlson)
I
will be more specific in discussing the model z-score. In
this analysis
there are
5
financial
ratios
are
calculated
and
the results
are
then combined
ratio z-score.
Altman found five financial ratios. These five financial
ratios are
1 1. Net working capital/total assets
(X1)
2 2. Retained earning/total assets (X2)
3 3. Earnings before interest and
taxes/total assets (X3)
4 4. Book value of equity/total equity (X4)
5 5. Sales/total assets (X5)
Z-Score = 0,717 X1 + 0,847 X2
+ 3,107 X3 + 0,42 X4 + 0,998 X5
Example in this matter:
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
From
the above formula will figure out the results of calculations that will be the
basis for predicting whether the company is in the observation has the
opportunity to experience financial difficulty / not to be headed to
bankruptcy.
And the results can be
explained as follows,
Conclusion:
Analysis of a company's chances of bankruptcy is
considered important for a company. This analysis not only for healthy
companies alone but for companies that are considered healthy. This analysis
was conducted as a follow preventive for healthy companies and is curative for
companies that are
not healthy.
For example
in the case above, the company has an opportunity kebengkrutan despite only being
in the position of gray area.
